2007 Johnnie Walker Classic

Below are the top 15 players in the CLi (Confidence Level Indicator) for the 2007 Johnnie Walker Classic that is taking place this week in Thailand. This is the CLi as of Wednesday morning at 9am MST USA.

Rank Player CLi 1 Ernie Els 1.40 2 Retief Goosen 7.50 3 Richard Sterne 8.50 4 Colin Montgomerie 9.30 5 Ross Fisher 9.40 6 Paul Casey 10.20 7 Ignacio Garrido 18.00 8 Shiv Kapur 18.40 9 Thongchai Jaidee 21.00 10 David Smail 21.40 11 Peter Hanson 22.40 12 David Lynn 24.10 13 Francesco Molinari 24.30 14 Simon Dyson 31.20 15 Adam Scott 32.20

The configuration used for the calculation of the Golf CLi for the Johnnie Walker Classic is as follows:

	#	Scoring Avg Weights	Earning Avg Weights
# of Past Tournaments Looking Back:	5	20%	20%
# of Days Looking Back:	30	10%	10%
# of Tournaments Looking Back:	4	20%	20%

Normally I would make the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" be 25% for both "Scoring Average Weights" and "Earning Average Weights". However, since the Johnnie Walker is being played on a different course (one that has been played on in the past for this tournament) in a new country (in Thailand, where as last year it is was in Perth, Australia), past results in this tournament should be valued less. So the overall weight for the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" is adjusted down from 50% (25% + 25%) to 40% (20% + 20%).

Normally I would have discounted the previous tournament results even further as it is in a different country then last year. However, the tournament has been played on this course in Thailand (Blue Canyon) before. So there is some history that players can use as a result of this.

With these settings, as one can see, Els, Goosen, Sterne, Montgomerie, and Fisher have the best chance of playing well. All of these players have a CLi below 10. With these players' CLi being below 10, the chance of them playing up to par as it relates to the CLi is rather good. The lower the CLi, the better the CLi calculation is for a tournament.

2007 Honda Classic

Below are the top 15 players in the CLi (Confidence Level Indicator) for the 2007 Honda Classic that is taking place this week. This is the CLi as of Tuesday morning at 9am MST USA.

Rank Player CLi 1 Jim Furyk 3.50 2 David Toms 8.30 3 Padraig Harrington 8.80 4 Robert Allenby 9.10 5 Peter Lonard 10.20 6 Davis Love III 12.80 7 Billy Mayfair 15.20 8 Fred Funk 19.40 9 Dudley Hart 19.80 10 Lucas Glover 23.60 11 Brett Quigley 25.50 12 Matt Kuchar 27.00 13 Cliff Kresge 28.00 14 Mark Calcavecchia 28.40 15 Luke Donald 31.50

The configuration used for the calculation of the Golf CLi for the Honda Classic is as follows:

	#	Scoring Avg Weights	Earning Avg Weights
# of Past Tournaments Looking Back:	5	20%	20%
# of Days Looking Back:	30	10%	10%
# of Tournaments Looking Back:	4	20%	20%

Normally I would make the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" be 25% for both "Scoring Average Weights" and "Earning Average Weights". However, since the Honda is being played on a new course this year, past results in this tournament should be valued less. So the overall weight for the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" is adjusted down from 50% (25% + 25%) to 40% (20% + 20%).

With these settings, as one can see, Furyk, Toms, Harrington, Allenby, and Lonard have the best chance of playing well. All but one of these players have a CLi below 10, with Lonard's CLi being 10.20. With these players' CLi being below 10, the chance of them playing up to par as it relates to the CLi is rather good. The lower the CLi, the better the CLi calculation is for a tournament.

2007 Accenture World Golf Championship Match Play: CLi Monday Quarterbacking

Ok, now it is time to look back at how the Golf CLi calculation did with the 2007 Accenture Match Play. Take a look below at the Golf CLi with the players final rankings for the tournament in the "RD6" column.

Rank Player CLi Rd6 1 Tiger Woods 1.50 9 2 Phil Mickelson 7.90 17 3 Henrik Stenson 10.00 1 4 Robert Allenby 11.60 33 5 Retief Goosen 12.50 17 6 David Toms 13.00 9 7 Charles Howell III 15.90 9 8 Nick O'Hern 16.20 5 9 Padraig Harrington 16.40 17 10 Davis Love III 16.50 33 11 Jim Furyk 16.60 17 12 Ernie Els 16.70 33 13 John Rollins 16.80 33 14 Colin Montgomerie 17.90 17 15 Vijay Singh 19.80 17

The glaring result is that the CLi had Henrik Stenson 3rd in the CLi rankings, who won the tournament. That is not bad to have Stenson that far up in the list just behind Woods and Mickelson, who were both 2 of the normal favorites in the tournament. The CLi for Stenson was 10.00. So this means the CLi thought he had a good chance of placing in the top 10. Sure enough, he won.

Looking at the top 10 players in the CLi rankings, the resulting rankings of the players was equal or better for 8 of the 15 players (53%), with 1 of the players in the list winning the tournament.

So the precentage was not all that great, but it was good to have a winner in the list.

2007 Mayakob Classic: CLi Monday Quarterbacking

Now it is time to look back at how the Golf CLi calculation did with the 2007 Mayakob Classic. Take a look below at the Golf CLi with the players rankings for each of the 4 rounds played.

Rank Player CLi Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 1 Fred Funk 1.50 1 1 1 1 2 Brandt Snedeker 3.00 48 56 68 97 3 Mark Calcavecchia 3.50 41 75 59 56 4 Dudley Hart 5.50 48 56 36 24 5 Ryuji Imada 8.00 31 39 24 56 6 Ted Purdy 8.25 48 56 49 14 7 Andrew Buckle 8.75 MC MC 117 97 8 Craig Kanada 9.00 26 22 17 14 9 Matt Kuchar 10.25 18 56 59 73 10 Vaughn Taylor 10.75 55 56 24 6 11 Peter Lonard 14.50 3 3 7 6 12 Bill Haas 15.25 5 7 4 9 13 Charlie Wi 15.25 MC MC 98 97 14 Omar Uresti 21.75 MC MC 110 136 15 Glen Day 22.00 70 75 24 14

For this tournament, the CLi did good in the aspect of picking Fred Funk to play well. The CLi through he had a 65% chance of placing in the top 2 since his CLi was 1.50. And sure enough, he won the tournament...even at the ripe age of 50.

However, for the 15 players in the list, the CLi struggled overall. Only 3 out of the 15 players bettered their CLi, while 12 finished worse than their CLi. Of those 12, 3 missed the cut. One of the goals of the CLi top 15 is to have all 15 players make the cut. It didn't happen in this tournament.

Starting the Golf CLi Blog

Ok, here we go. Am going to start posting blog entries relative to the Golf CLi calculations and how they do as it relates to the actual tournament results. So expect to see several postings each week to talk about the Golf CLi calculations as they are generated for tournaments during that week. Then also expect some interim postings on thoughts about the results --- i.e. if the Golf CLi calculation for a tournament was on the mark or way off.

Also, am looking for comments and feedback from users on each posting so we get some interaction going. As well, it will help me know if this blog is even worth the time or not. :-)